The Economics of Oil Shale Are Increasingly Determined by… Gas Prices?
Why the Iran oil price spike has failed to stimulate Permian drilling—and why natural gas increasingly determines shale economics.
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Monthly Commentary
Current thinking from the Recurrent investment team on natural resources, midstream energy infrastructure, capital cycles, inflation and commodity markets. Start with a topic, or browse the complete historical archive by year.
When Bonds Stop Diversifying
A century of evidence on when bonds protect portfolios, when they fail, and where natural resources fit.
Read the researchExplore by topic
Ideas we keep coming back to.
Markets change. The questions that matter tend to recur. Each topic pairs our strongest web-formatted research with the original monthly commentaries that developed the framework over time.
Featured monthlies
Original monthly · PDF
01 Real Assets as Portfolio Diversifiers Low correlations vs. Tech, broad equities and bonds. Explore topic
When Bonds Stop Diversifying
A century of evidence on when bonds protect portfolios, when they fail, and where natural resources fit.
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Divergent Capex, Divergent 2026 Performance
Low correlations between Tech and Energy/Natural Resources are rooted in sharply different capital cycles.
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Why Own Natural-Resource Equities Instead of Commodities?
Real-asset exposure should diversify portfolios without giving up the compounding power of equities.
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Original monthly research
PDF publications
Jan 2026
Our low-capex sectors help diversify away from capital-intensive Tech
PDF ↗
Oct 2025
Market timing is hard. How to diversify without diluting performance?
PDF ↗
Aug 2025
Midstream offers Fed-agnostic income; USD weakness stimulates demand for commodities
PDF ↗
Mar 2023
Midstream outperforms oil due to low debt; Natural Resources provides a NASDAQ hedge
PDF ↗
Apr 2022
Natural Resources and Energy become islands of stability
PDF ↗
02 Midstream's Journey Back from "Junk" Debt, payouts, capex and FCF reshaped the sector. Explore topic
Original monthly research
PDF publications
Sep 2025
Cash-rich midstream in a world that loves debt; 12 months of Drill Baby Drill disappointment
PDF ↗
Feb 2025
Falling midstream debt drives lower volatility; political uncertainty can create inflation
PDF ↗
Jan 2025
Midstream leverage declines as capex rises; Shale continues to drive U.S. economic differentiation
PDF ↗
Sep 2024
Midstream rally keeps pace with fundamentals
PDF ↗
Oct 2023
Midstream spends less, makes more; weak China PMI as an entry point
PDF ↗
Jun 2023
Midstream's journey back from junk goes on; a two-track energy market
PDF ↗
Feb 2023
Midstream FCF eclipses Shale; commodities are no longer just a China story
PDF ↗
Oct 2021
In Q3, the long-awaited FCF inflection began
PDF ↗
May 2021
From the kindness of strangers to self-sufficiency
PDF ↗
03 Capex, Debt and the Shape of Cycles The capital-cycle lessons of midstream now echo across utilities and Tech. Explore topic
What Makes Companies Spend? Valuation, Not Profitability
Across sectors, valuation has historically explained capital spending better than profitability.
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Mining Cash Flow Booms, but Capex is a Bust
High prices do not automatically create supply. Valuation determines whether cash becomes capex.
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Original monthly research
PDF publications
Feb 2024
A tale of two cities: midstream and utilities
PDF ↗
Aug 2023
Midstream and utilities diverge; past peak ESG
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Jul 2023
Midstream's wide discount vs. utilities; paper in a Natural Resources portfolio
PDF ↗
Dec 2022
CAPEX won't rise until valuation does
PDF ↗
Sep 2022
Can energy capital efficiency keep improving?
PDF ↗
Jul 2022
Our portfolio sees record FCF while mining sees record-low capex
PDF ↗
Mar 2024
Midstream rally drives other funds' tax bills higher; miners keep capex restrained
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04 Resources and Real Assets as an Inflation Hedge Capex, CPI and why physical shortages can outlast monetary tightening. Explore topic
When Bonds Stop Diversifying
A century of evidence on when bonds protect portfolios, when they fail, and where natural resources fit.
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The Great Inflation Misdiagnosis
Recessions and rate hikes can suppress demand. Durable commodity disinflation ultimately needs supply.
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Today's Energy Inflation Is an Infrastructure Shortage, Not a Molecule Shortage
Oil and gas can be abundant while the infrastructure that turns them into usable energy becomes scarce.
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Oil Didn't Spike When the Shah Fell. It Spiked Afterward.
The larger 1979 oil move came later, after inventories fell and spare capacity proved scarce.
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Original monthly research
PDF publications
Mar 2025
Tariffs drive lower capex economy-wide, planting seeds of longer-term inflation
PDF ↗
Aug 2024
With inflation tamed, it's time for rate cuts... right?
PDF ↗
Jan 2024
Are investors prepared for the end of energy deflation?
PDF ↗
Apr 2023
1975 and 2023: false dawns in the fight vs. inflation?
PDF ↗
Aug 2022
Commodity inflation in a services economy
PDF ↗
Jun 2022
Oil is well above $100 globally, and the Fed won't fix inflation
PDF ↗
May 2022
Inflation turns more structural; investors are still selling energy
PDF ↗
Mar 2021
Have investors forgotten how to hedge inflation?
PDF ↗
Jan 2021
Inflation hedging: CPI vs. PCI
PDF ↗
05 Shale, Oil and the Changing Commodity Cycle How short-cycle Shale changed oil volatility and the value of long-cycle supply. Explore topic
The Economics of Oil Shale Are Increasingly Determined by… Gas Prices?
As Permian wells become less oily, deeply negative natural gas prices increasingly influence marginal drilling economics—even when oil prices spike.
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Shale as Peaker Plant: Recurrent on Oil Cycles
Shale changed how quickly oil supply responds to scarcity, reshaping the entire cycle.
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Shale Transformed the Oil Cycle
Price-sensitive Shale supply has compressed the duration and magnitude of oil-market extremes.
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Original monthly research
PDF publications
Apr 2026
Energy capex remains restrained despite Iran; UAE exits OPEC as the dispatch curve rules the oil market
PDF ↗
Nov 2025
Oil finds a floor as gas hits a demand ceiling; midstream volumes push higher
PDF ↗
Apr 2025
If oil stayed between $55 and $85 forever, would it change how you invest in energy?
PDF ↗
Dec 2023
A GOP win won't break pipeline gridlock; Shale's value falls as volumes grow
PDF ↗
Sep 2023
Even in the EU, EVs can't kill pipes; XOM validates Shale as a high-cost option
PDF ↗
May 2023
CVX-PDC validates our white paper; MLP merger inefficiencies
PDF ↗
Jul 2021
OPEC leaves oil alone; midstream vs. renewable debt
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06 Energy Security and America's Physical Advantage Cheap energy, LNG and the industrial value of secure U.S. supply. Explore topic
Original monthly research
PDF publications
Jul 2025
U.S.-EU Energy Pact signals broader export boom beyond LNG; Big Tech reveals its playbook on price-sensitive energy consumption
PDF ↗
May 2025
U.S. LNG boom risks outstripping global demand as U.S. gas supply becomes inelastic
PDF ↗
Nov 2024
Trump's 3-3-3 Plan is less ambitious than it seems; pipelines will remain a constraint
PDF ↗
Jun 2024
Why infrastructure investors ignore midstream; America's durable BTU advantage
PDF ↗
Feb 2022
Russia takes the world back to 1973
PDF ↗
Sep 2021
Midstream's understated earnings power; aluminum shortages
PDF ↗
Apr 2021
Signs that reopening is straining commodity supply
PDF ↗
Historical archive
Research across the cycle.
Looking for a specific month rather than a topic? Browse the complete archive chronologically. Historical commentaries open as the original PDF publications.
2026 9 commentaries / research pieces
Oct 2026
The Economics of Oil Shale Are Increasingly Determined by… Gas Prices?
WEB ↗
Aug 2026
Bonds fail as a diversifier in inflationary times
PDF ↗
Jul 2026
Today's inflation reflects an infrastructure shortage, not a molecule shortage; capex discipline intact as commodity prices rise
PDF ↗
Jun 2026
Refined products disconnect from oil amid geopolitical crosscurrents; the midstream cycle remains more attractive vs. other "real assets"
PDF ↗
May 2026
Oil prices spiked after, not during, the Iranian Revolution; academia wades back into fossil fuel investing
PDF ↗
Apr 2026
Energy capex remains restrained despite Iran; UAE exits OPEC as the dispatch curve rules the oil market
PDF ↗
Mar 2026
Ukraine War drove years of performance, so why has Iran become a sell-the-news event?
PDF ↗
Feb 2026
Buffett says don't time the market. So why do investors try to time energy markets?
PDF ↗
Jan 2026
Our low-capex sectors help diversify away from capital-intensive Tech
PDF ↗
2025 12 commentaries
Dec 2025
Who stands ready to profit from a rebirth of the Venezuelan oil industry?
PDF ↗
Nov 2025
Oil finds a floor as gas hits a demand ceiling; midstream volumes push higher
PDF ↗
Oct 2025
Market timing is hard. How to diversify without diluting performance?
PDF ↗
Sep 2025
Cash-rich midstream in a world that loves debt; 12 months of Drill Baby Drill disappointment
PDF ↗
Aug 2025
Midstream offers Fed-agnostic income; USD weakness stimulates demand for commodities
PDF ↗
Jul 2025
U.S.-EU Energy Pact signals broader export boom beyond LNG; Big Tech reveals its playbook on price-sensitive energy consumption
PDF ↗
Jun 2025
Midstream's legacy volatility discount underappreciates today's oil-price stability; reconsidering gold as an inflation hedge
PDF ↗
May 2025
U.S. LNG boom risks outstripping global demand as U.S. gas supply becomes inelastic
PDF ↗
Apr 2025
If oil stayed between $55 and $85 forever, would it change how you invest in energy?
PDF ↗
Mar 2025
Tariffs drive lower capex economy-wide, planting seeds of longer-term inflation
PDF ↗
Feb 2025
Falling midstream debt drives lower volatility; political uncertainty can create inflation
PDF ↗
Jan 2025
Midstream leverage declines as capex rises; Shale continues to drive U.S. economic differentiation
PDF ↗
2024 11 commentaries
Dec 2024
AI ushers in a brave new world for energy
PDF ↗
Nov 2024
Trump's 3-3-3 Plan is less ambitious than it seems; pipelines will remain a constraint
PDF ↗
Oct 2024
Railroads offer a glimpse into midstream's future; gold's relationship to yields confounds expectations
PDF ↗
Sep 2024
Midstream rally keeps pace with fundamentals
PDF ↗
Aug 2024
With inflation tamed, it's time for rate cuts... right?
PDF ↗
Jul 2024
Midstream isn't just a bet on the Fed; seasonality explains recurring volatility in oil
PDF ↗
Jun 2024
Why infrastructure investors ignore midstream; America's durable BTU advantage
PDF ↗
Apr 2024
Beware companies and funds hyping the AI revolution
PDF ↗
Mar 2024
Midstream rally drives other funds' tax bills higher; miners keep capex restrained
PDF ↗
Feb 2024
A tale of two cities: midstream and utilities
PDF ↗
Jan 2024
Are investors prepared for the end of energy deflation?
PDF ↗
2023 12 commentaries
Dec 2023
A GOP win won't break pipeline gridlock; Shale's value falls as volumes grow
PDF ↗
Nov 2023
Factors driving midstream resilience; shrinking copper supply
PDF ↗
Oct 2023
Midstream spends less, makes more; weak China PMI as an entry point
PDF ↗
Sep 2023
Even in the EU, EVs can't kill pipes; XOM validates Shale as a high-cost option
PDF ↗
Aug 2023
Midstream and utilities diverge; past peak ESG
PDF ↗
Jul 2023
Midstream's wide discount vs. utilities; paper in a Natural Resources portfolio
PDF ↗
Jun 2023
Midstream's journey back from junk goes on; a two-track energy market
PDF ↗
May 2023
CVX-PDC validates our white paper; MLP merger inefficiencies
PDF ↗
Apr 2023
1975 and 2023: false dawns in the fight vs. inflation?
PDF ↗
Mar 2023
Midstream outperforms oil due to low debt; Natural Resources provides a NASDAQ hedge
PDF ↗
Feb 2023
Midstream FCF eclipses Shale; commodities are no longer just a China story
PDF ↗
Jan 2023
What drives stock performance, and when will gold outperform?
PDF ↗
2022 11 commentaries
Dec 2022
CAPEX won't rise until valuation does
PDF ↗
Nov 2022
MLP ETFs incur tax penalties; energy remains resilient in a recession
PDF ↗
Oct 2022
Portfolio FCF remains robust; China obscures low commodity inventories
PDF ↗
Sep 2022
Can energy capital efficiency keep improving?
PDF ↗
Aug 2022
Commodity inflation in a services economy
PDF ↗
Jul 2022
Our portfolio sees record FCF while mining sees record-low capex
PDF ↗
Jun 2022
Oil is well above $100 globally, and the Fed won't fix inflation
PDF ↗
May 2022
Inflation turns more structural; investors are still selling energy
PDF ↗
Apr 2022
Natural Resources and Energy become islands of stability
PDF ↗
Mar 2022
Natural Resources goes from divestment to must-own in two years
PDF ↗
Feb 2022
Russia takes the world back to 1973
PDF ↗
2021 12 commentaries
Dec 2021
A year of planted seeds and 2022 predictions
PDF ↗
Nov 2021
2021's bounce could lead to a sustained 2022 rally
PDF ↗
Oct 2021
In Q3, the long-awaited FCF inflection began
PDF ↗
Sep 2021
Midstream's understated earnings power; aluminum shortages
PDF ↗
Aug 2021
Delta gives us another shot at COVID-era valuations
PDF ↗
Jul 2021
OPEC leaves oil alone; midstream vs. renewable debt
PDF ↗
Jun 2021
You call that a catch-up trade?
PDF ↗
May 2021
From the kindness of strangers to self-sufficiency
PDF ↗
Apr 2021
Signs that reopening is straining commodity supply
PDF ↗
Mar 2021
Have investors forgotten how to hedge inflation?
PDF ↗
Feb 2021
Stagflation and homebuilding
PDF ↗
Jan 2021
Inflation hedging: CPI vs. PCI
PDF ↗
2020 7 commentaries
Nov 2020
FCF expansion and the vaccine rally
PDF ↗
Oct 2020
Higher inflation, buybacks and sector rotation approaching
PDF ↗
Sep 2020
Record FCF yields; Energy vs. Metals lag
PDF ↗
Aug 2020
Tech vs. Value; California power crisis
PDF ↗
Jul 2020
Midstream and the tobacco model; Metals outperformance
PDF ↗
Jun 2020
Buffett buys pipes; copper bounces
PDF ↗
May 2020
Post-COVID FCF and the reopening trade
PDF ↗
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