Recurrent Investment Advisors

Featured monthlies · September 2026

When Bonds Stop Diversifying

A century of evidence on when bonds protect portfolios, when they fail, and where natural resources fit.

Stock-bond correlation
High-inflation observations · CPI ≥2.5%

−0.951998–2020

+0.812021–2026 YTD

The relationship investors learned to rely on has reversed in this sample.
Source: Recurrent research. 2026 is a partial year.

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Ideas we keep coming back to.

Markets change. The questions that matter tend to recur. Each topic pairs our strongest web-formatted research with the original monthly commentaries that developed the framework over time.

Featured monthlies Original monthly · PDF

01 Real Assets as Portfolio Diversifiers Low correlations vs. Tech, broad equities and bonds. Explore topic

Featured monthliesSeptember 2026

When Bonds Stop Diversifying

A century of evidence on when bonds protect portfolios, when they fail, and where natural resources fit.

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Featured monthlies August 2026

Divergent Capex, Divergent 2026 Performance

Low correlations between Tech and Energy/Natural Resources are rooted in sharply different capital cycles.

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Featured monthlies January 2024

Why Own Natural-Resource Equities Instead of Commodities?

Real-asset exposure should diversify portfolios without giving up the compounding power of equities.

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Original monthly research PDF publications

Jan 2026 Our low-capex sectors help diversify away from capital-intensive Tech PDF ↗ Oct 2025 Market timing is hard. How to diversify without diluting performance? PDF ↗ Aug 2025 Midstream offers Fed-agnostic income; USD weakness stimulates demand for commodities PDF ↗ Mar 2023 Midstream outperforms oil due to low debt; Natural Resources provides a NASDAQ hedge PDF ↗ Apr 2022 Natural Resources and Energy become islands of stability PDF ↗

02 Midstream's Journey Back from "Junk" Debt, payouts, capex and FCF reshaped the sector. Explore topic

Featured framework · web 2018 to today

Midstream's Journey Back from "Junk"

High payouts and external financing broke the old model. Deleveraging and self-funding rebuilt it.

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Original monthly research PDF publications

Sep 2025 Cash-rich midstream in a world that loves debt; 12 months of Drill Baby Drill disappointment PDF ↗ Feb 2025 Falling midstream debt drives lower volatility; political uncertainty can create inflation PDF ↗ Jan 2025 Midstream leverage declines as capex rises; Shale continues to drive U.S. economic differentiation PDF ↗ Sep 2024 Midstream rally keeps pace with fundamentals PDF ↗ Oct 2023 Midstream spends less, makes more; weak China PMI as an entry point PDF ↗ Jun 2023 Midstream's journey back from junk goes on; a two-track energy market PDF ↗ Feb 2023 Midstream FCF eclipses Shale; commodities are no longer just a China story PDF ↗ Oct 2021 In Q3, the long-awaited FCF inflection began PDF ↗ May 2021 From the kindness of strangers to self-sufficiency PDF ↗

03 Capex, Debt and the Shape of Cycles The capital-cycle lessons of midstream now echo across utilities and Tech. Explore topic

Featured monthlies January 2026

What Makes Companies Spend? Valuation, Not Profitability

Across sectors, valuation has historically explained capital spending better than profitability.

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Featured monthlies July 2022

Mining Cash Flow Booms, but Capex is a Bust

High prices do not automatically create supply. Valuation determines whether cash becomes capex.

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Original monthly research PDF publications

Feb 2024 A tale of two cities: midstream and utilities PDF ↗ Aug 2023 Midstream and utilities diverge; past peak ESG PDF ↗ Jul 2023 Midstream's wide discount vs. utilities; paper in a Natural Resources portfolio PDF ↗ Dec 2022 CAPEX won't rise until valuation does PDF ↗ Sep 2022 Can energy capital efficiency keep improving? PDF ↗ Jul 2022 Our portfolio sees record FCF while mining sees record-low capex PDF ↗ Mar 2024 Midstream rally drives other funds' tax bills higher; miners keep capex restrained PDF ↗

04 Resources and Real Assets as an Inflation Hedge Capex, CPI and why physical shortages can outlast monetary tightening. Explore topic

Featured monthliesSeptember 2026

When Bonds Stop Diversifying

A century of evidence on when bonds protect portfolios, when they fail, and where natural resources fit.

Read research

Featured framework · web 62-year study

The Great Inflation Misdiagnosis

Recessions and rate hikes can suppress demand. Durable commodity disinflation ultimately needs supply.

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Featured monthlies July 2026

Today's Energy Inflation Is an Infrastructure Shortage, Not a Molecule Shortage

Oil and gas can be abundant while the infrastructure that turns them into usable energy becomes scarce.

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Featured monthlies May 2026

Oil Didn't Spike When the Shah Fell. It Spiked Afterward.

The larger 1979 oil move came later, after inventories fell and spare capacity proved scarce.

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Original monthly research PDF publications

Mar 2025 Tariffs drive lower capex economy-wide, planting seeds of longer-term inflation PDF ↗ Aug 2024 With inflation tamed, it's time for rate cuts... right? PDF ↗ Jan 2024 Are investors prepared for the end of energy deflation? PDF ↗ Apr 2023 1975 and 2023: false dawns in the fight vs. inflation? PDF ↗ Aug 2022 Commodity inflation in a services economy PDF ↗ Jun 2022 Oil is well above $100 globally, and the Fed won't fix inflation PDF ↗ May 2022 Inflation turns more structural; investors are still selling energy PDF ↗ Mar 2021 Have investors forgotten how to hedge inflation? PDF ↗ Jan 2021 Inflation hedging: CPI vs. PCI PDF ↗

05 Shale, Oil and the Changing Commodity Cycle How short-cycle Shale changed oil volatility and the value of long-cycle supply. Explore topic

Featured framework · web Oil market framework

Shale as Peaker Plant: Recurrent on Oil Cycles

Shale changed how quickly oil supply responds to scarcity, reshaping the entire cycle.

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Featured monthlies April 2025

Shale Transformed the Oil Cycle

Price-sensitive Shale supply has compressed the duration and magnitude of oil-market extremes.

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Original monthly research PDF publications

Apr 2026 Energy capex remains restrained despite Iran; UAE exits OPEC as the dispatch curve rules the oil market PDF ↗ Nov 2025 Oil finds a floor as gas hits a demand ceiling; midstream volumes push higher PDF ↗ Apr 2025 If oil stayed between $55 and $85 forever, would it change how you invest in energy? PDF ↗ Dec 2023 A GOP win won't break pipeline gridlock; Shale's value falls as volumes grow PDF ↗ Sep 2023 Even in the EU, EVs can't kill pipes; XOM validates Shale as a high-cost option PDF ↗ May 2023 CVX-PDC validates our white paper; MLP merger inefficiencies PDF ↗ Jul 2021 OPEC leaves oil alone; midstream vs. renewable debt PDF ↗

06 Energy Security and America's Physical Advantage Cheap energy, LNG and the industrial value of secure U.S. supply. Explore topic

Featured monthlies June 2024

America's Durable BTU Advantage

Cheap, abundant U.S. energy creates a durable advantage for energy-intensive industry.

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Original monthly research PDF publications

Jul 2025 U.S.-EU Energy Pact signals broader export boom beyond LNG; Big Tech reveals its playbook on price-sensitive energy consumption PDF ↗ May 2025 U.S. LNG boom risks outstripping global demand as U.S. gas supply becomes inelastic PDF ↗ Nov 2024 Trump's 3-3-3 Plan is less ambitious than it seems; pipelines will remain a constraint PDF ↗ Jun 2024 Why infrastructure investors ignore midstream; America's durable BTU advantage PDF ↗ Feb 2022 Russia takes the world back to 1973 PDF ↗ Sep 2021 Midstream's understated earnings power; aluminum shortages PDF ↗ Apr 2021 Signs that reopening is straining commodity supply PDF ↗

Historical archive

Research across the cycle.

Looking for a specific month rather than a topic? Browse the complete archive chronologically. Historical commentaries open as the original PDF publications.

2026 8 commentaries