White Papers and Commentary

Recurrent Industry Research

From Gasoline to the Grid - how electric vehicles will change how we consume energy

Electric vehicles (EVs) could drive the largest shift in energy demand since the internal combustion engine (ICE).

Existing research has either echoed Silicon Valley hype and minimized the practical challenges of such a dramatic societal shift, or dismissed the EV as a fad for the wealthy. Scalability and economics are rarely invoked, in either optimistic or pessimistic accounts of the EV's future.

We seek to add some much-needed economic realism to the discussion:

  • Measuring EVs by the standard of past disruptive innovations. We seek to better understand "what it takes" to shift society away from existing technologies, and how long those shifts require to take place. Much has been said about the potential of the EV, catalyzed by the spread of ridesharing. Again, history is our standard: we review the EV and its ability to drive costs lower, in comparison to history's "disruptive" innovations.
  • The world's capacity to ramp EV production. If we take seriously the ability of the EV to take market share from the ICE, we need to evaluate the capacity for ramping EV production from <1% of new cars to >20% within a matter of only a few decades. Production challenges will be significant as increasing efficiencies blunt but do not contain the EV's significant mineral requirements.
  • The impact on energy consumption from 20% EV share. Assuming that the issues raise in section 3 are not fatal, a significant portion of human energy consumption moves from oil - mature, efficient, and global - towards power - a much more fragmented, regional commodity . All of this is supported by electric storage, dependent on a variety of scarce materials.

We hope you enjoy reading our report, and welcome all feedback at info@recurrentadvisors.com.

Best,

Brad and Mark

The Impact of Shale on Energy Cycles

In this white paper, Mark Laskin outlines the unique attributes of shale production in the global oil market, and its impact on oil cycles in the future.

Our principals’ past energy research has included some of the following topics:

  • Oil Supply in a “Dispatch Curve” framework: US shale as the new “peaker plant” for global oil (Laskin, 2016, BP Capital Fund Advisors)
  • A return to shorter oil cycles and a US-centric market following the end of the OPEC era (Laskin, 2015, BP Capital Fund Advisors)
  • The End of the Northeast Premium – a prediction of prolonged bear market for Northeast US gas (Olsen, 2013, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.)
  • Coming sea change for NGL prices due to insufficient petrochemical demand (Olsen, 2011-12, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.)
  • Changes in the relationship between stocks and oil price before and after the 1983 oil crash (Laskin, 2006, Morgan Stanley Investment Management)
  • The seasonal impact of gasoline demand on the price of WTI in the mid-2000s (Laskin, 2005, Morgan Stanley Investment Management)